|View Of Shaksgam Valley Towards Gasherbrums From Terrace Above The Shaksgam River On Trek To Gasherbrum North Base Camp In China
This article was first published in Swarajya (link)on 5th May, 2018
Of late, boundary related issues have again cropped-up in Sino-Indian relations. Earlier, we’d had a stand-off in Doklam, which by all estimates, is hardly from over. And now comes a report published in ThePrint.com which mentions that Chinese have constructed a 36 km road in the Shaksgam Valley. The report also suggests that it could pose military challenge to India, especially its position on the Siachen Glacier.
This article presents an analysis of threat which this development poses to India, overall geo-strategic importance of Shaksgam Valley and the nature of threat which can emerge from any Chinese activity in this valley.
Note on maps & video:
This analysis covers a vast geography and hence, all the information cannot be presented on a single map. Further, since elevation aspect –height of various physical features like mountain passes and peaks – is a crucial factor impacting military aspect, normal 2D maps don’t bring out this aspect clearly.
To assist the readers to fully comprehend the subject, I’ve done three things:
- Prepare multiple maps which help to put each sub-section of the analysis in context.
- Video based on Google Earth tour which presents a bird’s eye view of the Shaksgam Valley from east to west. If you open the video on YouTube, you can read a description of the flow of the video.
- An interactive embedded map:
- All the peaks, features, glaciers and passes mentioned in the write-up are marked on the map.
- Information has been grouped into following categories on the map: (a) Karakoram Peaks (b) Glaciers (c) Passes (d) Rivers-Valleys-Lakes-Landmarks
- You can zoom in or click on the icons to identify them.
- However, these is one thing missing in the embedded map – the current boundary alignment between India and China (and Pakistan and China) and the claim line as per India. For that, please refer to the map above.
- The best way to understand, and appreciate, the geography is to view the map in 3D. To view the map in 3D, do the following:
- Click the ‘Stat’ icon given next to the name on map header (Northern Boundaries) in the map embedded below
- Open Google Map and go to ‘Your Places’
- In ‘Your Places’, click the ‘Map’ section.
- You’ll see a map by the name of Northern Boundaries(same map as below)
- Open the map and use the 3D feature to get a bird’s eye view of the elevation profile in the area and appreciate how it’s an important arbiter.
- You can also use the ‘Control + left mouse button’ to rotate the map and view it from different angles.
- Search function within the map will help you to quickly locate each feature mentioned in the write-up.
- I’ve taken care to mark the location of various features as exact as possible. Some of these features were already marked on Google Earth. Others I’ve marked by cross-referencing topographical maps, literature on the subject and Google Earth
- All maps are courtesy Google Earth
Forbidding Geography & Complicated History
It is important to understand geography of the region, along with a bit of history, to place the overall debate in proper context. The features, peaks, valleys, rivers and lakes mentioned in the description below will be again referred to later when military aspect of the topic at hand is discussed.
The Shaksgam River originates in east, in an area between Shaksgam Glacier and Shaksgam Pass, and flows in north-westerly direction till it takes an abrupt turn towards north-east and after flowing for a short-distance, merges with Raskam River. This place is called Chog Jangal and the combined river is henceforth known as Yarkand River. Technically, Raskam River is same as Yarkand River; it’s just that Krygyz nomads and Kanjutis (people of Hunza in Gilgit-Baltistan in present day Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) referred to a section of Yarkand River as Raskam River and the valley along it as Raskam Valley. Historically, this valley has had an important place in the boundary question between British India (Jammu & Kashmir) and China (Sinkiang) and later, when Pakistan and China settled their boundary in 1963. This area was historically under the control of Mir of Hunza (cultivation was done in the valley). The British in their effort to forge a northern boundary of Kashmir with China got the Mir to give-up his claims; later when Pakistan agreed to boundary settlement with China, it formally and completely gave-up this territory.
In pure geographic terms, Shaksgam River lies on northern side of the Karakorum watershed. What this means is that rivers on northern side of Karakorum Range, like Shaksgam River and Yarkand River, flow in north-westerly direction and empty themselves in the vast expanses of the Tarim Basin. On the other hand, rivers to south of this range, like Shyok River which is an important tributary of Indus River, flows in south-westerly direction and meets the Arabian sea. While north facing glaciers on the range feed rivers flowing into Tarim basis, the south facing glaciers feed tributaries of Indus River. For example, Siachen Glacier is the source of Nubra River and South Rimo Glacier is source of Shyok River. Shaksgam River on the other hand is fed by multiple glaciers which lie to south of its with Shaksgam Glacier, Kyagar Glacier, Singhi Glacier, Staghar Glacier and Urdok Glacier being the main feeders.
The watershed principle is one of the criteria used to settle boundaries. McMahon Line in the east, which forms the boundary between India and Tibet, is based on this watershed principle. With one major exception, the boundary alignment agreed between Pakistan and China from a point west of Kilik Dawan Pass (on China-Afghanistan-Pakistan tri-junction) to Karakoram Pass in the east, adheres to watershed principle. Consequently, the boundary agreed literally moves from one Karakorum Peak to another in south-easterly direction. For example, it runs right through the crest of Mount K2 or Mount Godwin-Austen (second highest peak in the world) placing the northern face of the mountain in China while southern face is in Pakistan.
The one exception is the area north of Shimshal Pass along the Braldu River, till its confluence with Shaksgam River. People from Shimshal (to west of Shimshal pass) used the grazing areas along the river (mentioned as Braldu grazing grounds on the map) during summer and if the area went to China (as it should as per watershed principle as Braldu river flowed north and boundary should’ve passed through Shimshal Pass), the local people would lose valuable grazing area for their cattle and face hardships. Pakistan requested the Chinese to adjust the alignment and they agreed. Pakistan consequently gained about 750 sq.km of areas in this sector.
The reason India accuses Pakistan of gifting Shaksgam Valley to China is because alignment agreed basis the watershed principle between Pakistan and China puts the Shaksgam River within China. If we compare what India considers as the northern boundary between J&K and Xinjiang and that agreed between Pakistan and China, we find that during initial stretches starting from Afghanistan-Pakistan-China tri-junction (west of Kilik Dawan Pass) to Kunjerab Pass and another 60 odd kilometres to east, both are same.
The deviation in two claim lines starts from the confluence of Oprang River with Shaksgam River. From this point onwards, while the Sino-Pakistan boundary takes a sharp dip in southern direction and then follows the Karakoram watershed, the Indian claim line continues along the Aghil Mountain ranges. While Karakorum mountain range forms the southern face of Shaksgam Valley, Aghil Mountains form the northern face. By agreeing to an alignment along the Karakorum mountain range, the Shaksgam Valley and southern face of Aghil Range have been ceded to China by Pakistan. The two alignments again meet in the east at the point south of Shaksgam Glacier (mentioned as Peak 93 on the map; this is not an official name but given by the author) and from here till Karakorum pass, the two alignments are again the same.
India, China and Shaksgam Valley
Only a part of border alignment as per Sino-Pakistan agreement of 1963 along the Karakorum watershed is between Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and China; balance part is between India (Ladakh) and China. In case of India and China, the boundary alignment runs from Sia Kangri Peak (at head of Siachen Glacier – currently the northernmost point under control of India) towards east till Karakorum Pass. The alignment passes through the crest of all major peaks on the watershed which literally form a wall between north and south. The Shaksgam River and its eponymous valley lie to north of this great wall and any north-south movement is possible only through few high passes in this wall of mountains. The difference in elevation of the valley and this mountain wall is stark – while the Shaksgam Valley floor itself is at an elevation of 4,500 meters (14,764 feet), the boundary runs along a ridge line which is in excess of 6,500 meters (21,325 feet)!
The map below gives a glimpse of this border. The three passes at the top (marked as P) from left to right are Indira Col (West), Indira Col (E) and Turkestan La. Glaciers from left to right area Shaksgam, Kyagar, Singhi, Staghar and Urdok. You can see Kyagar Tso Lake mentioned at the bottom of Kyagar Glacier. You can also make out Kyagar and Singhi Glacier blocking the Shaksgam River channel.
Shaksgam Valley & Military implication
So, given the geography, how can China pose security challenge to Indian interests in the region? To understand this, we assess the following two questions:
- Can China threaten Siachen Glacier or other areas in this region via Shaksgam Valley?
- Is China trying to create a lateral link between east and west via Shaksgam Valley?
(A) Threat to Siachen Glacier
From Chinese point-of-view, if they can come down from north into Siachen Glacier (in required strength) and then proceed south towards Shyok Valley, they will achieve a military masterstroke. They will land right in the middle of rear of Indian defences to east. Technically, the Chinese can then move east along the Shyok River and attack Indian positions in Daulat-Beg-Oldie (DBO)-Karakoram Pass complex from east. Indian positions would be caught in a pincer from front (Chinese assault from Aksai Chin towards DBO) and from rear. Simultaneously, they can go west along the Shyok River and meet the Pakistanis at Turtok. Defence of Leh would’ve to be mounted on Ladakh Range.
But alas! If all this was as simple has writing the above scenario.
Nevertheless, we look at possible Chinese threat to Siachen glacier, how feasible they are and role of Shaksgam Valley in helping the Chinese to achieve their objectives.
The threat to Siachen glacier can manifest in two ways. One, China uses long range artillery to target Indian positions on the glacier. Second, it actually makes an attempt to occupy the glacier.
(A.1) Fire Assault on Glacier
Depending on the kind artillery it uses and what areas on the Siachen Glacier it wants to target, People’s Liberation Army-Ground Forces (PLAGF) will have to reach within 30 – 100 km from the glacier. The closer it comes and longer the range of artillery it uses, the farther it can target Indian positions on Saltoro Ridge and areas to south of glacier.
PLAGF has long range multiple-rocket launch systems (MRLS) (range 100+ km and 200+ km range) which can target Indian positions from locations within the Shaksgam Valley. However, given the fact that any projectile fired towards Indian positions from Shaksgam Valley will have to clear very high ridge-lines of Karakorum Range, the firing will have to be done at very high angles. This perforce means reduced range and hence, firing units will have to be placed much closer to the glacier. This is despite the fact that artillery rounds in the rarefied air of high altitude tends to have a longer-than-expected range due to reduced air resistance. Given the range aspect, tube artillery will be of limited use if it is placed north of Urdok Glacier because from this location it can target positions only in northern end of the glacier. On the other hand, if tube artillery is placed in east segment of the Shaksgam Valley, it can target north and central Glacier. As will be explained later, building any infrastructure in the eastern part of the valley is a much more difficult proposition.
So, how do you reach a suitable place in the Shaksgam Valley to target Siachen Glacier?
A recent report in <ThePrint.com> claimed that Chinese have built a 36 km road further into the Shaksgam Valley from their position at the junction of Oprang River and Shaksgam River, which is the border point between Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir (POK) and China (as per 1963 Sino-Pakistan border treaty). If China continues to further develop this road, they could technically reach the base of Urdok Glacier, which lies on other side of Siachen Glacier, across the Siachen Muztag section of Karakorum Range.
However, if the intention is to hit Indian positions on Siachen (including areas as far south as start of glacier or even further south in Shyok Valley) with long range rockets, China has multiple options which do not require it to build a road in Shaksgam Valley.
For example, the entire glacier from north to south, including areas right up to Diskit (confluence of Nubra and Shyok River) are within the range of long range MRLS from areas which are under Chinese control. This includes area to north of Karakoram pass which is undisputed Chinese territory and which does not require the Chinese to develop any specific infrastructure. Or, it can launch rockets from Aksai Chin area, which is Indian territory under Chinese control.
To give an idea about the distance involved, the map below shows a 40 and a 100 km radius circle centered on northern edge of Siachen Glacier.
(A.2) Physical Assault on Siachen Glacier
Let’s now come to second aspect of Chinese threat to Siachen i.e. threaten physical occupation of the glacier. To do this, the Chinese will have to find some way to physically assault Indian positions on the glacier.
There is only one route by which the Chinese can hope to reach the glacier. This is to come-up the Urdok Glacier which lies on other side of the Siachen Glacier, the two divided from each other by vertical wall of Siachen Muztag Mountains (sub-range of Karakorum Range).
The map below shows the main features on this ridge separating the northern end of Siachen Glacier from Urdok Glacier.
The satellite images below give an idea of the geography corresponding to the above map in the area and the important features on the ridge dividing the Siachen Glacier from Urdok Glacier.
Numbered features on all the maps below are (17) Tiger Saddle (Indian Army position) (3) Conway Saddle (Pakistan Army position) (9) Indira Col (West) (8) Indira Col (East) (10) Turkestan La (Younghusband) (11) Turkestan La (East). Unnamed peak immediately north of Mount Hardinge is Sia Kangri. The wide valley towards north is Shaksgam River valley.
A more closer satellite image of the Indira Ridge area
To get an idea about what kind of geography a person coming up from Shaksgam River towards Urdok Glacier and then Indira Ridge would face, we look at the geography from the other or Chinese side.
View of Indira Ridge from upper reaches of Urdok Glacier. Features 1 to 4 are Indira Col (West), Indira Saddle, Indira Col (East) and Turkestan La (Younghusband). Turkestan La (East) is not visible and accessible from this direction.
View from east to west when looking from Staghar Glacier towards Turkestan La (East).
The geography in this area, when looking from Siachen towards Urdok Glacier, is best described in the words of distinguished Himalayan Mountaineer, Harish Kapadia, who led an expedition to head of Siachen Glacier in 1998. I quote:
- The main Indira Col (west) is located at the foot of the eastern ridge descending from Sia Kangri. It is here, exactly, the heads of the Siachen and Urdok glaciers meet. This col was recorded to have been reached by Col. N. Kumar’s team in 1981 and again by the Americans in 1986. The northern sections from this Col are overhanging and it is not possible to descend in the north from here or from India Saddle.
- On the same ridge a point of 6000 m is erroneously marked on the present map as Indira Col. It is a steep saddle and by no imagination can be called a col (Col is the lowest point on a ridge). It is not known how and when this point came to be associated as Indira col and who reached it first. But at present all the teams from the army and others reach this Saddle. We propose to call this point as India Saddle. It is the northernmost point of India at present (being few “seconds” further north of the true Indira Col (West).
- On the ridge further east lies the Indira Col (East) which was reached by Bullock-Workman expedition in 1912. This col is located on the head of a minor valley rising from the Siachen glacier. It is possible to descend to the north from this col into a side valley of the Urdok glacier.
- The easternmost pass on this ridge is Turkestan La (North). It is an easy pass on both the sides and this was reached in 1889 by Col. Younghusband.
- The ridge turns south from here. Little to the south Turkestan La (East) is located.
On reaching the Indira Col, he states thus:
- I decided to reach this Col with Sherpa Pemba Tsering. After a walk of about 2 hours we were at the pass. At the pass we made a safe anchor and walked on the northern cornices to safely look down the Urdok glacier.
- This beautiful flat glacier led northwards to join the Shaksgam River which was visible. Several peaks were visible but unfortunately Gasherbrum I was in clouds. On the north was Chinese Turkestan where trekkers in recent years had roamed freely.
- Apart from the political divide we were standing on a major geographic divide too. The waters from this col drained in the south to the Siachen glacier, Nubra, Shyok and Indus rivers to merge with the warm waters of Arabian Sea. Waters to the north drained into the Urdok glacier, Shaksgam River, Yarkand River, Tarim and Qyurug rivers to merge with the Lop Nor Lake.
|Harish Kapadia standing on India Col. You can make out the Urdok Glacier in the back beyond the ice
Therefore, if Siachen has to be threatened, the best access is through Turkestan La.
So, does it make sense for the Chinese to make a road in Shaksgam Valley (starting from their border with Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir in east) till base of Urdok Glacier to bring troops and support equipment for this task?
Well, it so happens that the Chinese have a much shorter option available to them, in case they would like to embark on such an adventure.
The alternate option runs through the Aghil Pass. As the crow flies, Aghil Pass lies ~60 km north of Turkestan La. This pass connects the Shaksgam Valley with Raskam Village (also called Yilike) and upper reaches of Raskam Valley. Between Aghil Pass and Raskam Village/Yilike lies the Surukwat Valley.
A metalled road connects Raskam Village/Yilike with Mazha, which is a node on the Chinese C219 highway (which connects Xinjiang with Tibet and runs through Aksai-Chin). Mountaineers and hikers who intend to explore the Shaksgam Valley or summit the K2 peak from northern/Chinese side or other peaks in the area, take this route to reach the Shaksgam Valley. They travel by 4×4 vehicles till Raskam/Yilike Village and from thereon, engage camels and porters for hike till their respective base-camps.
If fact, Raskam/Yilike is a nodal point for other Chinese border outposts in the region. An access road from it goes west along the Raskam Valley till its confluence with Shaksgam River. From here, the road travels south to the Chinese border outpost (on POK and Chinese border) through which a 36 km road has been extended into Shaksgam Valley proper.
The last point till which the road has been extended (as visible on Google Earth) is more than 100 km as the crow flies from northern head of Siachen glacier. In comparison, Aghil Pass is less than 50% of the distance. It also has additional advantage of being closer to the main highway which, when push comes to shove, will eventually be the main feeder of troops and supplies.
The Shaksgam Valley starts off as a narrow valley which gradually opens-up and increases in width as the river flows from east to west.
As explained earlier, starting from its origin in general area between Shaksgam Glacier and Shaksgam Pass, the river is fed by five major glacier (from east to west) i.e. Shaksgam Glacier, Kyagar Glacier, Singhi Glacier, Staghar Glacier and Urdok Glacier. Of these, the Kyagar Glacier and Singhi Glacier extend right into the river bed and block it at many places. This makes the river run through a narrow channel and consequently, lakes tend to develop behind these blockades. During summer season, the river witnesses flooding as the glaciers recede and the stored water flows out. Kyagar Tso is one such permanent lake which exists before the junction of Kyagar Glacier with Shaksgam River. The length of the lake varies depending on the season.
The satellite image below shows the eastern part of Shaksgam River and Valley. In the satellite image, you can identify the Kyagar Tso lake at the base of Kyagar Glacier. Further east, you can make out Singhi Glacier also blocking the Shaksgam Valley.
Therefore, while it is relatively easy to make a road starting from west and moving east till base of Urdok glacier, doing further east will be a very difficult proposition. And while Chinese have shown exceptional engineering in capability in surmounting physical barriers while developing infrastructure, what remains to be seen is whether cost-benefit exercise supports such development activity. Because we must remember that between Shaksgam Pass and Urdok Glacier, there runs a 6,500 meter high Karakorum wall which simply doesn’t allow any north-south movement to threaten Indian positions further south. To gain entry into Siachen Glacier, Chinese will have to come up the Urdok Glacier.
Interestingly, the news report in <ThePrint> had quoted this conversation with General Bipin Rawat on the question of road construction in Shaksgam Valley (before they broke the story about the road activity):
The Army, in fact, believed that it was impossible to build a road through the valley due to the tough terrain in the region. “Through the Shaksgam Valley, it is practically near impossible to make a road or a highway,” Gen. Rawat said in response to a direct question by ThePrint.
“They may make a mule track or jeep-able track but through the valley, you cannot make a highway. So there is no threat,” he said.
While the COAS is better placed to answer in what context he gave the above reply, it is quite possible that he was referring to the eastern extremity of the Shaksgam Valley from Shaksgam Pass to east of Urdok Glacier. As explained above, not only is it difficult to build a road in that area, satellite images don’t show any construction activity. So far.
There can be multiple reasons as to why the Chinese have decided to construct this road. And whether it will be extended further.
- Infrastructure for better patrolling and movement of troops, if required:
- Chinese are actually trying to create a circular road network connecting Raskam/Yilike Village-Chog Jangal – Chinese border outpost on POK-China border (confluence of Oprang-Shaksgam River) – Suget Jangal – Kulim Jilga – Aghil Pass – Surukwat Valley and Raskam/Yilike Village.
- Even if the above is not meant to threaten Indian positions, it can be used in future as per requirement.
- Provocation – Opening another ‘boundary dispute’ to build pressure on India:
- A central piece of Chinese strategy with India, when it comes to border discussion, is to maximize its position. And negotiate from this position.
- Take Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh for example. This is a land over which the Chinese, directly or indirectly through Tibet, have never had any physical possession. Yet, it calls it a disputed territory. One border settlement option propounded by many strategists (and which I think was the case in early 1950s as well), is for China to accept McMahon Line in east while India gives up claim over Aksai Chin in the west.
- So, China first makes a claim, irrespective of the fact how illogical it is, and then in negotiations, gives up this illogical ‘claim’, while getting something more tangible in return.
- The Shaksgam Valley has been under Chinese control since 1963. And while India has raised objection to the treaty and ceding of Shaksgam Valley to China by Pakistan, it has never made any effort to physically occupy the valley.
- By building a road, Chinese could be creating another bargain point. In lieu of stopping the construction of this road, it could ask India to adjust its concern somewhere else. Like Doklam.
- Connect G219 with Karakoram Highway
- The Chinese could look to connect G219 (which connects Xinjiang with Tibet) in east with Karakorum Highway in west.
- To achieve this, the road will have to come from POK-China border at confluence of Oprang River-Shaksgam River, up the Valley of Bradlu River, through Shimshal Pass, Shimshal Village, through the steep and narrow gorge of Shimshal River and join Karakoram Highway at Passu in POK.
- But to achieve this objective would require massive engineering effort and time, simply because of the forbidding and treacherous terrain involved. Especially, multiple, very steep and narrow river gorges which will require a road to be creating by blasting a passage in side walls of the gorges.
The Chinese road at this point does not pose any threat to Indian positions on Siachen or anywhere else on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Will it pose a military threat in future? That depends on the Chinese objectives. Technically, they can mount a physical assault on Siachen Glacier from north but it will require substantial investment in infrastructure and manpower. And will take quite some time to build-up any credible capability. India would have sufficient time to respond to any such development.
The lateral link from Shaksgam Pass in east to POK-China border in Shaksgam Valley east also looks tenuous. At present.
As Harish Kapadia says in his book, ‘Siachen Glacier: The Battle of Roses’ and I quote:
The situation in Shaksgam Valley today is similar to that on the Siachen in 1970s. China has allowed several mountaineering expeditions to climb in this valley. Many teams have attempted the north face of K2 from here and groups have trekked freely in the valley without liaison officer. The recent years the explorer Kurt Diemberger has spent much time in the area and crossed the Kyagar Tso Lake in an inflatable boat, raising the possibility of such a crossing by an army, should it be required. A French team led by Bernard Odier reached almost all the way to the foot of Indira Col. With a little more time and effort they could have traversed Turkestan La and looked onto the Siachen Glacier. <snip>
The fact that this could happen should make authorities give the Shaksgam Valley the importance it deserves.
In short, we should remain vigilant. But at the same time, analyse developments for what they are and not indulge in sensationalism.